After The Green Light

Oilers Struggle after a Break...

2010-12-19T17:29:00.007-05:00

The Oilers are in the midst of a 4 day break and by eye they've always seemed to do terrible when faced with a layoff of this length.

Going back to the 03-04 season, the Oilers have had 11 of these breaks scattered around the various years (I didn't include Olympic breaks). I looked at their record and GD in the first 5 games following the break. No particular reason why I chose 5, I just did.

It's always nice to know your memory still occasionally works, the Oilers are just terrible coming off a break. The team is a combined 21-28-4-2 (2 ties) in their 55 games (.436 win%). Their overall record those 7 seasons is 227-231-53-12 (12 ties). They are defenitily a little worse off as their winning % is .496

Some fun numbers:

In game 1 after the break, the Oilers are 3-8-0 with 27GF-47GA. Bet the Sharks+ on your proline for the game on Dec 21st.

The Oilers best game is game 4 where they are 5-5-1 with 31GF-33GA.

The Oilers have only finished .500 or better 4 times in 11 tries. The Oilers have gone winless once.

The Oilers have scored exactly 16 goals five times and exactly 9 goals three times.

The Oilers have given up 17 or more goals 7 times.

The Oilers are 15-26-4 over their last 9 attempts in this analysis, getting out scored 165-116.

Break	Record	GF	GA	GD
Oct 17-20 2010	1-3-1	16	22	-6
Jan 8-11 2010	0-4-1	9	21	-12
Jan 21-26 2009	2-3-0	9	17	-8
Dec 7-10 2008	1-3-1	9	18	-9
Nov 21-25 2008	3-2-0	16	16	0
Jan 25-28 2008	2-3-0	11	12	-1
Oct 14-17 2007	2-3-0	13	18	-5
Jan 21-25 2007	3-2-0	16	17	-1
Dec 24-27 2006	1-3-1	17	24	-7
Oct 8-11 2006	4-1-0	16	11	5
Oct 26-29 2004	2-1-2	16	16	0

RFA Years at the end of a contract

2010-10-07T09:24:00.004-04:00

Just to further along my post about saving contracts.

One of the arguments against rolling the ELC of Hall & Paajarvi over is that they could be more expensive later on if they start out older.

I get the argument, because instead of being 21 when their deal is up they are 23. And considering I've used the argument that players get better as they get older I can agree with this.

That being said, there is a flipside to it, and that's what do you do with the 2nd contract?

Fortunately, we don't have to look too far to see our own Sam Gagner.

First of all though, I think I need to clarify my assumptions here. My concerns are based on a best case scenario (which involves the 3 kids all matching expectations). My comparables for all 3 contract wise are Hall = Kane, Paajarvi = Getzlaf and Eberle = Perry. The styles may not matchup, but I think counting numbers might. Based on that I have all 3 making $6mil/season (Kane is just over 6 and Perry and Getzlaf are under but signed when the cap was lower).

I am assuming that by 21 years old Hall is about an 80 point player. I'm assuming that by 22 Paajarvi is a 70-80 point player and that by 23 Eberles is a 30 goal scorer. I think these represent what we "expect" from these guys at the end of their first contract. I won't be discussing Eberles because his clock has started anyways.

If Hall is an 80 point player by 21 and his ELC starts at 18, how much money do you save on a long term deal vs him being a 90 point player at 23 (starting his ELC at 20)? I can't see it being much, simply because both the team and his agent are probably factoring in that progression to be that player at 23.

If Paajarvi is a 70 point player at 22 and an 80 point player at 23, how much do you save on his deal? Again I don't think there is enough to save on a cap hit.

So that's if everything goes well.

What if Hall and Paajarvi need 3 years to adjust to the NHL but breakout in their 4th year?

It's a very reasonable question, but I think one that favours holding them off. This is where Sam Gagner comes into play. He has completed 3 years in the league and has made progress but hasn't broken out yet so the team has agreed to a 2 year deal with him. Had the Oilers held Gagner out, last year would have been his rookie year and we'll assume he was still about a 45 point player. His ELC had a cap hit of $1.625 mil/season. His new contract pays him 2.25 mil/season.

Rookie Age	10-11	11-12	RFA Left
18	2.250	2.250	2
20	1.625	1.625	4

In both cases, Sam Gagner would be an RFA after 2 years. The biggest difference is the Oilers only have 2 RFA years left to negotiate a long term deal, as opposed to 4 if they started him in the NHL at 20.

Contract Savings by keeping Hall/Paajarvi out of the NHL

2010-10-06T18:23:00.008-04:00

Eberle, Hall & Paajarvi making the team in 2010-2011

Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
Hall	3.75	3.75	3.75	6.00	6.00	6.00
Paarjarvi	1.53	1.53	1.53	6.00	6.00	6.00
Eberle	1.16	1.16	1.16	6.00	6.00	6.00
Total	6.88	6.88	6.88	18.00	18.00	18.00

Eberle making the team in 2010-2011, Hall & Paajarvi making the team in 2011-2012

Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
Hall	0.00	3.75	3.75	3.75	6.00	6.00
Paarjarvi	0.00	1.53	1.53	1.53	6.00	6.00
Eberle	1.16	1.16	1.16	6.00	6.00	6.00
Total	1.16	6.88	6.88	11.28	18.00	18.00
Savings	----	----	----	6.72	0.00	0.00

Eberle making the team in 2010-2011, Paajarvi making the team in 2011-2012 & Hall making the team in 2012-13

Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
Hall	0.00	0.00	3.75	3.75	3.75	6.00
Paarjarvi	0.00	1.53	1.53	1.53	6.00	6.00
Eberle	1.16	1.16	1.16	6.00	6.00	6.00
Total	1.16	2.69	6.88	11.28	15.75	18.00
Savings	----	----	----	6.72	2.25	0.00

Oilers Look: Games 33-37

2010-01-12T11:30:00.003-05:00

The Oilers followed up a solid 5 game road trip with a disasterous home stretch. They lost all the traction they gained by losing 5 games in a row (4 in a row at home).

Games 28-32:

Team Record: 5-0-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 170 - 162 (+8)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 115 - 117 (-2)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 16 - 10 (+6)

Team Shooting %: 9.41

Team Save %: 93.8

Games 33-37:

Team Record: 0-5-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 139 - 148 (-9)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 97 - 93 (+4)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 10 - 23 (-13)

Team Shooting %: 7.19

Team Save %: 84.5

As good as JDD was on the 5 game winning streak, he was simply awful (as was Dubnyk) in this stretch. An .845 sv% is what you'd expect if you called up a tier 2 junior goaltender for a 5 game stretch. The shooting % fell through the floor as well, registering the lowest total of any of the game samples I've analyzed this year.

It was a shame too, because aside from the Washington game (where they were brutally out-chanced 30-19), the Oilers held their own as a team quite well. Take out that game and they out chance their opposition 78-63 (+15). With those kinds of numbers on a regular basis, you'd expect a team to win a lot more hockey games.

There is not much going right for this team. As bad as I thought this team would be, I didn't think 15th in the conference was possible. The team on the whole seems to have gotten to the point where they have gotten competitve on the ice in terms of generating chances, but their percentages are just killing them. They are playing like a 10th place team but getting sunk by some awful goaltending and some terrible puck luck on offence.

At this point in time, there's nothing much to do other than hope it continues and the Oilers get a top 2 pick. There's very little hope for much else at this point.

Sorry Burrows, No one Cares...

2010-01-12T11:10:00.004-05:00

http://communities.canada.com/theprovince/blogs/whitetowel/archive/2010/01/12/alex-burrows-accuses-nhl-ref-of-having-a-personal-vendetta.aspx

At least anyone who isn't a Nucks fan and is tired of watching your antics. Not only are you dirty, but you dive and are an out right fucking coward. It's about time your bullshit caught up with you.

Don't like Phantom calls? You seem to draw enough of them and are quite happy to do so.

And I don't buy for a second that he told you that he'd "get you back". Sorry, but your reputation as a dishonest player makes it very unlikely that I'd believe anything you say. I have no doubt he talked to and probably brought up the incident from before.

But I have a feeling that "I'm going to get you tonight" was closer to "you've lost all benefit of the doubt with me".

It's the same thing that happened to guys like Avery and Tyson Nash. Eventually, when you play that type of game, the refs stop looking at the other guy and start looking at you, because you were always the one who started it.

Oilers Look: Games 28-32

2009-12-12T10:44:00.005-05:00

One of the more impressive stretches for the Oilers so far this year. 5-0 road trip (a couple involving some good teams), and they hung in every game with the exception of the trip finale (where they struggled for 2 periods before coming on strong).

Games 23-27:

Team Record: 1-3-1

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 142 - 167 (-15)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 97 - 117 (-20)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 14 - 19 (-5)

Team Shooting %: 9.85

Team Save %: 88.6

Games 28-32:

Team Record: 5-0-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 170 - 162 (+8)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 115 - 117 (-2)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 16 - 10 (+6)

Team Shooting %: 9.41

Team Save %: 93.8

Can't argue with going 5-0 on five straight games on the road. The numbers don't bear out a 5-0 stretch, but 2 of them came on the shootout so 3-0-2 (8 points in 5 games pre shootout) is pretty close to full value. Add in the shootout wins and voila.

Oilers benefited from some fantastic goaltending by JDD. He's really had a good stretch since his awful game against Vancouver, and he's a big reason why the Oilers did as well as they did.

Even though they lost out on the scoring chance battle in this stretch, it was close. And unlike early on (when they got badly out chanced), they aren't relying on 3-4 goals on 16 or 17 chances. They got 3 on 22 vs Tampa, 2 on 19 vs Florida, 2 on 26 vs Dallas and 4 on 26 vs Detroit. The one odd game was the last game where they potted 5 on 22 against St. Louis, but you can take those when they are the exception rather than the rule.

The only disconcerting thing was that they still gave up a lot of scoring chances. You can't expect your goaltender to roll with a save percentage near 94%. If they can start to curb those a bit, they can find themselves on a few more stretches where they are above .500 (this was just the 2nd stretch all year where they did it).

Simple Breakout (Rec League)

2009-12-10T14:10:00.006-05:00

Like most of you, I still like to play some rec hockey (though for me it's ball hockey now instead of ice). Our team is mostly guys in their late-20's and early-30's and we are routinely pretty competetive in our lower tier division (don't blow anyone away, but we usually compete for the championship).

Lately though, we've been running into these younger teams who transition from ice hockey. Most of them in their early 20's, lots of wheels, lots of good individual skill, that sort of thing. Most of these teams send in a rather disorganized 2 man forecheck, but because of the overall team speed it was causing us problems. We don't practice, so we needed something we could pick up fairly easily on. Nothing too complicated, but enough to breakdown and expose the forecheck and aggressiveness.

Most of these teams attack in waves. First group goes in and presses, and the next group follows up with immediate pressure if the ball gets past the first group. Our goal was to sort of expose that by quickly chipping past each wave. The one benefit our team has is that we aren't lazy, we run hard, we don't stand around too much and we all get back.

We needed something that was not only easy for us to pick up on, but also something that wasn't too easy for the other team to read and pick up on.

This play can be reversed to either side, but we'll look at the right side only. When the puck is at the right D, the RW will circle down a bit, then cut across the rink. the C then goes outside the blueline and circles back down to where the RW was. The pass goes from the RD to the C. As that happens, the LW goes to the RW wall between the blueline and centre for a chip from the C. As this is happening, the RW cuts up the middle of the rink, then can either accept the pass from the LW in the middle, or continue over to the RW wall (just outside centre) for another chip pass by the LW. The centre follows up by jumping back into the play. In ballhockey this play is more of a chip out, dump and change (due to the redline becoming the blueline when you get possession). In ice hockey you can use this as possession breakout.

Oilers Look: Games 23-27

2009-11-30T11:22:00.004-05:00

Things went from bad to worse for the Oilers. Hemsky is now out for the season and the Oilers finish another stretch below .500

Games 18-22:

Team Record: 1-2-2

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 157 - 141 (+16)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 112 - 108 (+4)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 14 - 15 (-1)

Team Shooting %: 8.92

Team Save %: 89.4

Games 23-27:

Team Record: 1-3-1

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 142 - 167 (-15)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 97 - 117 (-20)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 14 - 19 (-5)

Team Shooting %: 9.85

Team Save %: 88.6

Solid games against a very good San Jose team, as well as a surprising Coyotes team weren't enough to save this stretch either. The San Jose game really hurt, because it was a game they should have won based on the numbers. San Jose just caught the bounces when they needed them and got it to a shootout where they picked up the extra point.

They scored early and often against Phoenix (which is a bit of a theme for this club against the Yotes), and coasted to an easy win.

Those games were sandwiched by a pair of lousy outings for Deslauriers. He looked bad against Chicago and even worse against Vancouver. His performance has been all over the map this year. He's struggled badly on shots up high, but manages to keep almost everything on the ice out of the net (no matter how open things seem).

If They Start Playing Like They Did Earlier...

2009-11-26T19:12:00.003-05:00

We'd be in pretty much the same situation.

Despite the pleas from fans to revert back to the scoring at will team from before, I just don't think it's going to happen. Early on, this team wasn't generating scoring chances, but they were scoring goals.

This team never really was playing good, they were just getting a lot of bounces for them. I don't just mean bounces where it goes off a body and in, but even a bounce where a good defenceman misplays a puck and you get a good scoring chance out of it or a breakdown happens and the puck goes to an open guy.

Those situations benefitted the Oilers greatly in the first 10 games of the season, and some have mistaken that for playing well. They really weren't, but wins and goals change the perception for a lot of people. They were playing more physical, but that really hasn't translated at all into their time of possession or ability to generate shots or scoring chances.

The most worrisome part is that this team hasn't shown it can get any better in this regard as players return. They've been just as bad with Souray in the lineup as they were without him. They are just as bad with their injured regulars returning as they were with them all out.

They have yet to throw more than 1 line together that can consistantly out chance their opposition (whatever line Penner is on seems to do the trick), and the coaching staff refuses to hard match that one line.

So sure, they can start playing like they did earlier, but I'd argue they have been!

Oilers Look: Games 18-22

2009-11-19T10:03:00.003-05:00

A win in game 22 wasn't enough to salvage this stretch. It was the 3rd in a row where the Oilers failed to be above .500 since their hot start to the year.

Games 12-17:

Team Record: 2-4-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 160 - 218 (-58)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 102 - 146 (-42)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 13 - 20 (-7)

Team Shooting %: 8.13

Team Save %: 91.7

Games 18-22:

Team Record: 1-2-2

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 157 - 141 (+16)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 112 - 108 (+4)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 14 - 15 (-1)

Team Shooting %: 8.92

Team Save %: 89.4

The Oilers had a rather unfortunate stretch here. They played better both by the math and by the eye, but the results just weren't there. This time around though, the puck luck is going to the other team and the Oilers are left to stumble around at post game interviews trying to answer "why?".

Well, the answer is simple really... other teams got good goaltending and cashed in on their chances. Pretty tough to argue that when the Oilers on multiple occasions this year scored 4+ goals on 20 or fewer shots. If the Oilers can start pulling a few more of these stretches together (with a higher conversion and better stopping rate), they can hang with the playoff teams in the west.

Oilers - Avs Post Game

2009-11-19T09:42:00.004-05:00

With the Oilers down 4-2 in the second, it almost seemed like Murphy's Law was not only going to hit the Oilers, he was going to steal their car, empty their bank account, max their credit cards and steal their girlfriend. For the first time in a long time, the Oilers looked like the better team all over the ice and were very unfortunate to be losing (based on the shots and scoring chances).

And with the way this team has played this year, no one would have anything to complain about if they did lose... after all, it's how they've won a good portion of their games this year.

After watching the Avs a lot lately (they just happened to be on when I can wrestle the TV away from the women in my house), I think their bubble is about to burst. I find it hard to believe that Craig Anderson can play 60 NHL games in one season with a sv% anywhere over .920. The way the Avalanche have played this year, that's about what they need to be a playoff team.

As it stands, they are basically the Edmonton Oilers with better goaltending. Both teams have been badly outshot this year, both teams have very high shooting% (Colorado at 11.5%, Edmonton at 11.6%). The main difference is that Colorado's team save% is .924 on the year. The Oilers are about 12 points lower.

If Anderson can't maintain an elite level of play, this team is going to falter very badly. They won't keep getting the shooting percentage results that they have been, so any faltering in net is going to hurt them.

Oiler Look: Games 12-17

2009-11-17T12:07:00.002-05:00

The Oilers are currently in the midst of one of their worst stretches since the 06-07 stretch run. The offence that carried them early has basically disappeared, and the guys who were going have slowed down.

Games 6-11:

Team Record: 3-3-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 151 - 208 (-57)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 103 - 121 (-18)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 18 - 18 (E)

Team Shooting %: 11.9

Team Save %: 91.3

Games 12-17:

Team Record: 2-4-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 160 - 218 (-58)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 102 - 146 (-42)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 13 - 20 (-7)

Team Shooting %: 8.13

Team Save %: 91.7

The Oilers have gotten continually worse at giving up both shots and scoring chances. That was going to be a problem anyways, but it's gotten worse simply based on the number of injuries this team has endured. The only real bright spot about this stretch was that the goaltending held up rather well. If this team can keep getting a team sv% over .913 it's going to give them a chance. The big downfall was the shooting%. This was the first set of games where the team sv% fell not only out of upper-echelon territory, but to below league average. It really was bound to happen (15.2% ring a bell?), but the team on the season is still at 11.4%. The shooting percentage really has been the only reason the Oilers record has been so flattering to this point, otherwise they would be closer to Taylor Hall than the playoffs.

The one positive from the Oilers this year has been their PP. The Oilers PP hasn't clicked like this in a long time, and if they can pick up the rest of their game to at least an average level, it is a playoff team. But when you can't kill penalties (on pace for the same pk% as last year), and you are horrible at ES (on pace to be -27), average is a long ways away.

Absolute Joke

2009-11-04T13:47:00.006-05:00

Let me get this out of the way... I firmly believe intentionally hitting a player in the head should be a penalty. I don't care if it's your shoulder, if you intentionally hit a player in the head, it should be called.

That being said, this hit doesn't constitute a head shot:

The fact that Michael Liambas has been suspended for the rest of the OHL season and playoffs is an utter joke. The only reason Ben Fanelli got hurt as bad as he did was because he turned and his helmet became undone.

Liambas doesn't make contact with the head if Fanelli doesn't turn and bend. Fanelli doesn't get hurt nearly as bad if his helmet stays done up and his head doesn't come into contact with the stantion.

This is simply a horrible decision by the OHL. Hopefully Fanelli can recover quickly and not face any lifetime setbacks from this.

Now this is a legitimate headshot:

Don't get me wrong... Booth had no business cutting acrosse the blueline like that, but Richards intentionally went for his head. Richards even avoided Booth's body in order to get his head.

Oiler Look: Games 6-11.

2009-10-27T15:38:00.002-04:00

I'll be looking at the Oilers season through 5 and 6 game segments until the end of the season and charting how they do in terms of shooting and save percentage, as well as how they do in terms of generating shots and scoring chances for and against (using the scoring chances that Dennis has counted at MC's site).

Games 1-5:

Team Record: 3-1-1

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 129 - 160 (-31)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 81 - 100 (-19)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 19 - 15 (+4)

Team Shooting %: 15.2

Team Save %: 90.6

Games 6-11:

Team Record: 3-3-0

Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 151 - 208 (-57)

Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 103 - 121 (-18)

Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 18 - 18 (E)

Team Shooting %: 11.9

Team Save %: 91.3

Games 1-5 saw the Oilers give up 3.8 more scoring chances per game than they generated. There was an improvement in games 6-11, which saw the Oilers get out-chanced by 3.0 scoring chances per game. The shot clock tells a different story though, the Oilers were out shot by an average of 9.5 shots per game, up from 6.2 shots per game. So the extra shots they ended up giving up cancelled out the increase in team save % they saw (a 0.7% increase). Combined with a shooting % that fell by 3.3%, and it's pretty clear why the Oilers ended up going just .500 and having an EV goal differential.

The problem they are facing now is that the unsustainable shooting% is falling a lot faster than their save% is rising, and it's also got a lot farther to fall. If you assume that the high end for the team save % is going to be at around .920 (extremely high btw), there is only another increase of 0.7% available, which works out to be about 1 extra saved goal over 6 games (based on the SA over the past 6 games).

One of the more concerning things is that you can't just point to the rash of injuries on the blueline and say "when we get the defencemen back, we'll be fine". The problem with this team continues to be the forwards and the poor puck support that is forcing the blueliners to make lower percentage plays. Until the forwards can not only come and support the puck better, but also make plays when they get the puck, it's going to be very hard for this team to change the balance of shots for / against.

15.2%

2009-10-13T11:03:00.003-04:00

Hands up everyone who knows what that number signifies?

That's the Oilers current team shooting percentage 5 games into the NHL season. If anyone thinks that is sustainable over the long haul, well, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you. To keep this 15.2 in perspective, look at it this way... If the Oilers played the same goaltender every game, that goalie would end up with a .848 sv% at years end (kind of makes Conkamorranen from 05-06 look Vezina worthy).

Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed most of the games so far, but I did the same last year to when after 4 games the Oilers were 4-1. How well it holds up is another matter completely.

Through 5 games last year the Oilers were:

Team Record: 4-1-0
Shots For: 129
Shots Against: 160
Goals For: 13
Goals Against: 12
Team Shooting %: 10.1
Team Save %: 92.5

Through 5 games this year the Oilers are:

Team Record: 3-1-1
Shots For: 125
Shots Against: 159
Goals For: 19
Goals Against: 15
Team Shooting %: 15.2
Team Save %: 90.6

In 08-09 the Oilers relied heavily on an elite level sv% to get their 4-1-0 mark. Their 13GF-12GA suggests their record shouldn't have been 4-1-0, but it happens over a small sample size. Their shooting percentage last year was high, but it could be sustainable (at least a similar level).

In 09-10 the Oilers have relied mostly on an abnormally high shooting percentage. Something that is not at all sustainable over the long term. During the same stretch, their save percentage has been below average, though much closer to a realistic number than the shooting % has.

The Oilers have not only been out shot by a similar level to last year, they've been out-chanced as well. According to Dennis' tallies, the Oilers have been out-chanced 98-80. Aside from the 2 games against Calgary (who have been out chanced by everyone for the record), the Oilers gave up at least 5 more scoring chances than they produced.

It's interesting to see the conclusions people are drawing from these first 5 games versus the first 5 games last year. There's still an unsustainable percentage at work here, only this time it's the shooting percentage as opposed to the save percentage. Until this team starts being able to regularly out chance their opposition, it's going to be another long year.

Oiler Forward Combinations (ES)

2009-09-23T10:59:00.006-04:00

With it still being silly season, it's interesting to read the papers, the blogs and the boards to see the different opinions on the state of the Oilers and who they will break camp with.

One of the crazier premises is that guys like Pisani and Moreau are in danger of losing their jobs to a youngin'. This is an interesting assessment coming from a fan base that watched a veteran-laden squad come within a game of winning the cup to watching most of those veterans get replaced by players just starting their NHL careers and the team missing the playoffs 3 years in a row.

As much as Moreau's play has deteriorated since he got hurt the first time, he's still a legit NHL player on a team that has few of them. Yes he needs to cut the number of penalties he takes (significantly I might add), but if we are talking ES, he was the 2nd most relied upon (and reliable) forward for the Oilers last year (behind Horcoff). There was no Oiler forward who had the discrepancy between Qualcomp and Qualteam that Moreau did (who played all year), yet he still managed to break almost even. This is not a player the Oilers can easily replace, especially not with any of the guys in camp.

Fernando Pisani is another player who's track record over the past few seasons speaks for itself. Despite missing a whack of games over the past couple of seasons, Pisani still manages to come back and play at a level superior to most others on the team. Pisani has played with almost everyone on the team and in almost every role. There isn't a player out there who has played significant time with him that hasn't benefited greatly from it. IMO, he's the Oilers 3rd best player when he's healthy.

With that out of the way, when figuring out the ES line combination for the Oilers, I'll be working on the assumption that Quinn roles his lines at ES and is less concerned about match ups (and it makes a significant difference).

Line 1: O'Sullivan - Horcoff - Hemsky

They ran this line a bit last year after the deadline and it wasn't very effective. I think a lot of that had to do with O'Sullivan's struggles finding the back of the net. The Corsi for this line was pretty impressive and if they can cash those chances, it should be a very effective line.

Line 2: Penner - Gagner - Pisani

A healthy Pisani gives the Oilers plenty of line matching options. Gagner gets a couple of decent forwards who can get the puck to him, while also being difficult to play against. Penner gets a creative offensive player and a quality guy to cycle the puck with. Pisani gets a chance to put aside some of his babysitting duties and to show a bit more of his offense. There's only a few lines in the league I'd be extremely wary about putting this line out there against, giving the Oilers a pair of quality lines.

Line 3: Comrie - Cogs - Nilsson

This is my soft parade, should be able to handle the softies, but they will get killed against anyone good. With 2 quality lines up front, I think the Oilers can try and get away with this line. Teams might be wary letting the Sully-Horc-Hemmer line go against anyone else but their best, and that gives this line a chance. If teams start to show no fear and start rolling their best against this line, changes will have to be made. Swapping Moreau for

Line 4: Moreau - Pouliot - Stortini/Jacques/Stone/Brule

Decent enough 4th line. Pouliot and Storts have shown they can handle this role as good or better than most bottom 12'ers. Moreau gives them a good veteran presence and is someone that can swap with Comrie or Nilsson on the 3rd line when the situation warrants it.

I think Stone has made enough of an impact to warrant being on the roster to start the year. Whether he has much of an impact is up for debate, but he's not hurting the Oilers by being here. The biggest question is do the Oilers risk losing Brule on waivers? Personally speaking, I don't think it's much of a loss, but I really don't matter. Potentially losing a MacIntyre is probably something the Organization is willing to do instead, and I won't argue with that either.

PS GDB #2 Oilers vs Islanders

2009-09-18T10:25:00.003-04:00

For the 2nd night in a row, the Oilers dressed a trio of NHL veterans on the blueline. I missed the first half of the game, but I caught some of the highlights and the Oilers looked like they were out chancing the Islanders early on. The Oilers were unfortunate to be off the board for so long, Eberle hit the post on an open net and Hemsky got stoned by Lawson.

The Oilers PK looked sharp again, not allowing too many quality chances. Once again though, they faced a less than stellar PP grouping, though it did have Weight and Tavares.

After a pretty strong showing on the PP against Calgary, it went 0 for against the Islanders (though the Hemsky chance was generated on the PP off a nifty Gagner feed).

Both Deslauriers and Dubnyk continued their strong pre-season play. If this continues JDD will most likely get the nod as the backup this year, simply because that gives the Oilers more options. At this point, for JDD to lose the job his play would have to seriously decline (more so than Dubnyk being able to outplay him).

PS GDB #1 Oilers at Flames

2009-09-15T23:07:00.003-04:00

I like that the Oilers have dressed 3 veteran blueliners. There are no battles to be one, and the defencemen are going to have the biggest adjustment to make in the rumoured new "offensive and aggressive" system. Getting them into games right off the bat will be good for them. I'd expect all of them (save Visnovsky) to have played at least one game by the time the 3rd pre-season game rolls around.

While it's important to give the young kids a look, getting the guys who are going to play this year into form early could make a huge difference.

Even Strength: The Oilers seem to be running a 1-2-2 with a defenceman pressuring on the weak side, forming almost a 1-3-1 when the puck moves towards the Oilers end. Should be interesting to see how that holds up against a team that really moves the puck well.

Power Play: One of my biggest complaints of the Oilers PP has been it's complete and utter reliance on Hemsky. When he is on the ice, every play must come off his stick. The issue ends up being that if he's not reading the lanes right, the Oilers PP ends up being completely useless. Against Calgary, the Oilers have used several players to set up chances and they've done it from both sides of the ice, instead of relying on Hemsky setting everything up from the LW half boards.

Penalty Kill: Not seeing too much different this year than last year. I think the biggest difference is the opposition PP. Not a single bonafide PP player is in the lineup for Calgary so it's really tough to critique their play. They are continuing to skate pressure out to the puck carrier, and against this Flames PP they've done a good job at getting into the lanes.

The Good: The players you figured should be making a difference have been. The vets that the Oilers have dressed have all played well. Horcoff has shown some good hustle and made a few good plays back checking. Gilbert has been the best player on the ice. Sully has shown his offensive instincts and has shown a knack for getting into the good areas. Comrie has been clever offensively and generated a few chances. Schremp is showing he can run a PP from Hemmer's opposite wing and has stayed tough at ES. Both goaltenders have played very well.

The Bad: Not too much to be mad at here, other than the excessive penalties. Plante got burned a bit on the breakaway goal (part of the problem when you go for a 3 on 3 on the PK), but he's played well aside from that, including some nice work on the PP. Chorney is a complete and utter chaos defender. He was the blueliner that got caught on the Flames goal, and he's had some nervous moments but he's recovered from all of them and has shown some good decision making on the PP.

All in all, not a surprising result. Oilers had a lot more quality in their line up and it showed on the scoreboard. Flames kept it close for a bit, but weren't much of a threat.

PK Save Percentage or Re-arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic

2009-09-04T11:26:00.005-04:00

Yes, another goaltending post.

I was asked to participate by Derek Zona and the boys at Coppernblue to participate in their round table about the upcoming season.

One of the points that some were bringing up was about how the Oilers special teams should be better this season, and therefore the Oilers should be a better team. When I was coming up with my answer, I focused more on ES than ST (actually I ignored ST completely in the answer I gave), and the reason for that is I don't expect the Oilers ST as a whole to be much better.

Last year the Oilers finished -21 on special teams. That was a combination of not only a bad PP, but a bad PK and taking a lot of penalties in general.

The biggest personnel change to the PK this season is the addition of Nikolai Khabibulin and the subtraction of Kyle Brodziak. Even if the "system" is better, what impact with the change in goaltending have? These are Khabibulin's PK save% numbers from the last several years:

2008-2009: .866

2007-2008: .877

2006-2007: .866

2005-2006: .845

2003-2004: .844

Compared to the Oilers Starting Goaltender (goalie in parenthesis) - followed by team PK rank:

2008-2009: .878 (Roloson) - 27th

2007-2008: .890 (Roloson/Garon) - 5th

2006-2007: .894 (Roloson) - 8th

2005-2006: .837 (Markkanen) - 8th

2003-2004: .842 (Salo) - 27th

Based on the numbers, the unexpected result is the 2005-2006 rank. The Oilers had a team sv% of .840 on the PK that season. Part of the reason the PK was so good in general was that they only gave up 542 shots on 478 penalty kill opportunities (1.13 SA/PK). For reference in 08-09 the Oilers gave up 562 shots on 338 penalty kills (1.66 SA/PK).

Based on the numbers, it's hard to see where the upgrade on the PK is going to come from. They've gotten worse in net and they haven't added anyone. Renney has had some good PK's in the past, but does he have enough to work with in Edmonton?

Edmonton Oilers Goaltending or Why Armageddon is Here!

2009-08-31T16:47:00.005-04:00

Few topics have been as polarizing this offseason as the Edmonton Oilers goaltending situation heading into the 2009-2010 season. The Oilers are coming off a season in which Dwayne Roloson posted the single greatest goaltending season of any goaltender in Edmonton Oilers history (I'll prove it in a day or two), and still managed to miss the playoffs.

Khabibulin and Deslauriers are pencilled in as the goaltenders right now. Looking back at the past few years for both and there is very little to be excited about. Khabibulin has put up sv% of (games in parenthesis) .886 (50), .902 (60), .909 (50) and .919 (42) in the last 4 years. While one positive sign is that he's trended upwards every year, the problem is that 3 of the 4 years he was below league average in terms of save percentage. The one year he exceeded (last year at .919), he played just 42 games. The biggest question at this point is how will his injury problems of the past impact him in the future? Can he play enough games at a high enough level to justify his contract?

At this point it's tough to see that happening. I don't buy a lot of the justifications about his play. Things like he wins when it counts look great on the back of hockey cards but I'm not sure how relevant it is. In 2007-08, the Chicago Blackhawks missed the post season by 3 points and Khabibulin was 23-20-6. If he was truely able to raise the level of play when it was warranted, I'm sure the Blackhawks would have liked some of that then... it would have made the difference between making and missing the playoffs. The other problem with that line of thinking is what is his mindset this year? Is this a year that he mentally brings it, or does he mail it in because the team has a reduced chance at the playoffs? At what point does he decide to bring his "A" game?

Others point to his playoff work last season in "leading" Chicago to the Conference finals. Not sure I buy that either. Khabibulin was full value in the Calgary series where he posted a 2.53 GAA and a .914 sv% (though he did bomb in both games in Calgary). He completely fell apart in the Vancouver series and was carried by the Blackhawks offense. His 3.04 GAA and his .873 save percentage are down right awful numbers (even in the 80's). Chicago made it to the conference finals on the backs of their offence which scored 24 goals in the series. This is not what anyone should consider "winning when it counts".

This doesn't even factor in his injury history, which should be a concern to everyone. He's not a 26 year old who can adapt... he's 35 and he hasn't been able to stay healthy for 4 years in a row.

The biggest problem with his indurability (I'll call Websters), is that his backup is unproven at best. This would be a great time to have a Mathieu Garon around, but instead the Oilers have Jeff Drouin Deslauriers, with all of 10 NHL games of experience and a spotty minor league track record.

One of the positives about JDD last year was that he fared pretty well in the games he started (2.86 GAA, .917 sv%). He got beat up in a pair of relief appearances (6.71 GAA, .792 sv%), which you can't really fault him too much on. Both games were well out of hand before he got in. The problem is, he only had 7 starts all last year and 3 were excellent (11/09 vs New Jersey, 11/10 vs NY Rangers, 4/10 Calgary), 2 were poor (11/13 vs Toronto, 11/30 vs Dallas) and he had 2 more which were good but unspectacular (10/17 vs Calgary, 4/11 vs Calgary). It really is a roll of the dice with him, and the sample size is so small that it's tough to draw any real conclusions based on his play.

You have to go back to his AHL career to get any sort of pulse on him as a goaltender. There is sort of a glass half full, half empty approach here. The good news is that he improved his save % every year in the AHL. He went from .888 to .897 to .908 to .912. The bad news is that every single year was below average at the AHL level and he was behind his comparable peers in every season.

It's very hard to find a goaltender with anything close to JDD's resume that ended up being more than just a replacement level goaltender. That might fly in Detroit, Pittsburgh or any other good team, but it's well below what the Oilers need, especially if they get an injury to Khabibulin.

When you look at the goaltending, there are a lot more negatives than positives. You can always hold out hope that guys play above your expectations, and if it does that's fantastic. Khabibulin has shown at times that he can play at a very high level. Anything less than the goaltending they got last year and the mountain just gets higher.

Not Buying In and Knowing Your Role

2009-08-27T19:57:00.003-04:00

For a couple of years now (and more prominantly since the dismissal), there has been more and more talk about the players not buying into the system of Craig MacTavish. The fact that this isn't at all worrisome to Oiler fans (in fact this is one of the reasons people point to that he should have been fired), makes me wonder about the future of this hockey team.

It was evident from day 1 of the 08-09 system that the team wasn't buying in. We know this because we've got about 75 days worth of post game audio where the players and coaches lamented on the fact that the team wasn't doing what it was supposed to be doing.

Now call me crazy, but shouldn't the players at least attempt to do what they are supposed to do before they write off the whole thing as pointless? I mean I could understand if the players were executing and things weren't going well to question what the coaching staff was having them do... but that clearly wasn't the case. Not once all year could you say that the team executed the game plan over a span of more than a game or two at a time.

I obviously don't know what went on behind closed doors... but there were complaints about things being too complicated and that the team was reactive in all of their game plans, rather than proactive. Seems like a load to me. The Oilers didn't do anything on the ice that looked remotely complicated. Their forecheck was pretty standard, their defensive zone coverage was pretty standard and so was their breakout. There was nothing in any of that which makes me think things were too complicated. As for being reactive, I'd like to hope so. The Oilers weren't a good enough team to dictate the pace to anyone else in the Western conference and being reactive gave them a fallback plan to work with. It's been the same way since 2005-06 though... so this isn't something new, and it shouldn't surprise anyone who has followed this team. The Oilers absolutely need to play to the weaknesses of every team they face. This is exactly how St. Louis and Columbus play as well.

Ales Hemsky had a very famous quote just before the wheels fell off the hockey team. Something along the lines of wanting to be the go to guy and the guy to carry the team. This also provided more fodder for the firing of MacTavish, but I'm curious as to where he thinks he can help?

Oddly enough, it coincided with his removal from the shootout lineup. I think one would have to be naive to think that didn't hurt his pride a bit, and was at least partially responsible for his comments. The problem is, he's been dreadful at shootous. He simply doesn't score enough. I know common knowledge is your most skilled guys should shoot, but I don't think that should be the case. The top shooters in the shootout are rarely the guys you'd expect, and some of the biggest names in the sport have struggled badly in the shootout. This aspect above almost all others is completely about execution and counting numbers. You simply need to score and Hemsky just doesn't do it enough.

The problem ends up being, how do you give Hemsky more responsibility and a bigger role? There aren't many options. He plays the most on the PP and the puck has deferred to him on the half boards for 4 years now (which IMO, is the biggest thing wrong with the Oilers PP). You can probably play him more minutes here, but that's about the extent of it. He already matches up against the other teams best players most of the time, and he also plays with the best linemates on the team. In terms of extending his ES time, he doesn't do well at all away from Horcoff and/or Penner. He gives up more goals and scores less. Double shifting him is just going to end up burning him out more and not provide any results (based on our current roster).

I'm just not sure where Hemsky thinks he can do more to help the team. It all leads back to being more about the shootouts than anything else. With the apparant attitudes of the players, it's no wonder this team was in such disarray last year. The only way the coaching change fixes this is if the players themselves buy into whatever is said from day 1. It needs to be a concious choice to listen, much like last year it was a concious decision to ignore.

Patrick O'Sullivan

2009-08-05T11:02:00.004-04:00

In Junior, O'Sullivan was the kind of player who took over games at both ends of the ice. He was always an under rated defensive player (even his first year when the Ice Dogs were terrible), and played a regular shift on the PK. His offensive skills were also top notch which made it all the more surprising why he dropped so far in the draft (#56 OV in 2003).

His first year in the AHL was very impressive, which saw him total 78-47-46-93 (GP-G-A-PTS) as a 20 year old in the 05-06 season.

He was traded that summer to Los Angeles and split time in the NHL and AHL. His AHL numbers took a drastic hit as he put up 41-18-21-39. This represents a tremendous drop in production. His goals dropped 0.11 GPG, his assists dropped 0.7 APG. You don't expect this sort of drop from a player at the AHL level as they get older.

The question is, what happened?

Part of the answer might be found in a teammate of O'Sullivan's in Roman Voloshenko. At the age of 19 he put up 60 points in 69 AHL games, which is damn impressive. He followed that up with 30 points in 76 AHL games the following season, a significant drop (and has since toiled in Russia playing in limited games). This raises an honest question of how much of their offense was based on the roster at the time?

There were several players who had career seasons that year, including both Kirby Law and Erik Westrum who finished 1-2 in league scoring that year. Kirby Law had a 37 point jump from his next best season and Erik Westrum saw a 56 point jump.

Defenceman Curtis Murphy was an AHL vet who had a pretty good track record of producing offense in the AHL, but even he saw a 13 point jump on his next best offensive season.

Matt Foy saw a significant jump in terms of his own production, scoring 40 points in 51 games after 25 in 69 the year before. Peter Olvecky has had just one better season than his 05-06 season (and it wasn't much better) and veteran Rem Murray was in the middle of his first season back after his short retirement.

All in all, it seems to be a season that saw a lot of things go very well for a lot of players on that Houston team, and perhaps that may have set expectations high for what O'Sullivan could be. That 93 in 78 sticks out a lot more than the rest of his numbers do. He's had huge issues coming close to his NHLE numbers from that season, but he's been significantly closer to the ones from his 06-07 season (39 in 41).

His goal scoring is perhaps the most worrisome out of everything. He's a shooter, but they don't seem to be translating into goals. I'd like to go through his shot chart (at least with the Oilers) to find out where he's getting his shots from. His shooting % was the 2nd worst in the NHL amongst all forwards who got 200 or more shots (Gomez was worse). The next worse was Mikael Samuelsson who shot 7.4%.

At this point in time, the Samuelsson comparison seems to be the most valid. He gets the puck going the other way but can't translate it into GF for his team. Not that it's horrible, but it is quite the price to pay when you are talking a near $3mil cap hit for him.

At this point it's really hard to see O'Sullivan's offense ever translating from junior or his first big year in the AHL. In his pro career that year seems to the be the biggest aberration, as opposed to the one to potentially base his potential off of. He's never really been close to that in either his NHLE numbers or in his time back down in the AHL.

All that being said, he does a pretty good job at getting the puck going the other way and if he could ever translate those shots into goals (whether for himself or for others), it would do a hell of a job in helping his goal differential. I don't think he's going to be the "one shot scorer" Oiler fans crave, nor do I think he'll even be the 30 goal guy they crave... but he's a useful if not overpaid hockey player who still has time to grow into an important part on this team.

Instant Playoffs

2009-07-31T15:54:00.007-04:00

The Oilers are in a pretty unique situation right now. They have quite a mix of veteran and young players, and the direction of this team is basically unknown.

With so many higher level contracts on the book, this team should be looking to make the playoffs now. That sort of explains the Heatley trade. What doesn't make sense is how they've sat around waiting for it to happen. As soon as Heatley didn't wave it, the Oilers really should have been looking elsewhere.

Right now the Oilers depth chart stands like this:

Centres

Shawn Horcoff ($5.5)
Sam Gagner ($1.625)
Andrew Cogliano ($1.133)
Marc Pouliot ($0.825)
Gilbert Brule (0.75) *Based on a one way deal.

Left Wing

Dustin Penner ($4.25)
Patrick O'Sullivan ($2.925)
Ethan Moreau ($2.0)
Jean Francois-Jacques ($0.525)
Steve MacIntyre ($0.537)

Right Wing

Ales Hemsky ($4.1)
Robert Nilsson ($2.0)
Fernando Pisani ($2.5)
Zach Stortini ($0.7)
Liam Reddox ($0.55)

Defence

Lubomir Vishnovsky ($5.6)
Sheldon Souray ($5.4)
Tom Gilbert ($4.0)
Denis Grebeshkov ($3.15)
Steve Staios ($2.7)
Ladislav Smid ($1.8)* Estimating high here... (I hope)
Jason Strudwick ($0.7)

Goaltenders

Nikolai Khabibulin ($3.75)
Jeff Deslauriers ($0.625)

Cap hit $57.395 Mil ($1mil bonus cushion)

The Oilers clearly have little in terms of wiggle room here. In fact this is probably the ideal amount of wiggle room you want in case of short term injuries, so we'll use $57.5 mil ($1mil of it is bonuses) as our team cap.

The first step is to identify players who are replacable from within, or at least can provide close enough results for a lower cap hit. I don't see anyone being able to do it amongst the forwards... we've already got enough players who aren't good enough there and the younger players coming in haven't shown enough to write them in as a potential replacements.

On D there is an interesting situation. The Edmonton Oilers top 4 is very good (if Souray plays like he did last year and Vish can bounce back from the bad shoulder). Gilbert and Grebeshkov make for an solid 2nd pairing who have both shown they can play top minutes when necessary. Our bottom 3 is a place where I think we can start making moves. As much as I think Staios gets a bum rap for his play, he's the most expendable D we have based on his contract. If one of the top 4 get hurt he's still got enough left to fill in there without getting murdered, but it's still enough of a dropoff that we wouldn't make the playoffs anyways. So my first step is to trade Steve Staios for a pick or a significantly lower contract.

That leaves the Oilers 6D with Souray, Vishnovsky, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Smid, Strudwick, Peckham and a cap savings of $2.1 mil (lose Staios's $2.7 and add Peckham's $0.6). That leaves the Oilers at $55.295. I don't see anywhere else that the Oilers could promote from within without a drastic loss in performance.

Because it is still the offseason, the Oilers have an additional 10% in which they can go over the cap. That's roughly $5.8 million, which gives the Oilers some wiggle room in the short term. This $7.9 mil in cap space should be used to address our LW and C issues. The first move I make is to throw a 1 year $4.5 mil offer to Tanguay and see if he bites. Let's say he does that, my next move would be to make offers on Malholtra and Betts. I'd give Malholtra the $2mil he's looking for (1 year deal) and Betts $0.7mil. That, combined with Tanguay, is $7.2 mil.

Our cap hit is then at $62.495 meaning the Oilers now need to drop $5mil in contracts. If we re-jigg our depth chart, we get the following:

Centres

Shawn Horcoff ($5.5)
Sam Gagner ($1.625)
Manny Malholtra ($2.0)
Blair Betts ($0.7)
Marc Pouliot ($0.825)
Gilbert Brule (0.75) *Based on a one way deal.

Left Wing

Alex Tanguay ($4.5)
Dustin Penner ($4.25)
Andrew Cogliano ($1.133)
Ethan Moreau ($2.0)
Jean Francois-Jacques ($0.525)
Steve MacIntyre ($0.537)

Right Wing

Ales Hemsky ($4.1)
Patrick O'Sullivan ($2.925)
Robert Nilsson ($2.0)
Fernando Pisani ($2.5)
Zach Stortini ($0.7)
Liam Reddox ($0.55)

Defence

Lubomir Vishnovsky ($5.6)
Sheldon Souray ($5.4)
Tom Gilbert ($4.0)
Denis Grebeshkov ($3.15)
Steve Staios ($2.7)
Ladislav Smid ($1.8)
Jason Strudwick ($0.7)

Goaltenders

Nikolai Khabibulin ($3.75)
Jeff Deslauriers ($0.625)

If we identify guys who are expendable in this lineup I see Moreau, Nilsson and O'Sullivan in terms of the higher money contracts. O'Sullivan switches over to RW and it's basically a battle between him and Nilsson. The Oilers can keep one but not both. Personally speaking, I lean towards keeping O'Sullivan, simply because he's a bit more versatile. I don't think his offense is ever going to translate to the NHL level, but he's already been learning on the job in terms of PK so that's useful with this bunch. Moreau is basically gone. He'd be the 4th best LW we have and the way Quinn runs lines it would be a bad mistake to spend that much on him. Taking Nilsson and Moreau out saves the Oilers $4mil. In terms of what to get for them I'd be happy with draft picks. I know it lessens the Smyth return but that well is dry anyways.

So if we look at potential lines, I have this:

Tanguay - Horcoff - Hemsky
Penner - Gagner - O'Sullivan
Cogliano - Malholtra - Pisani
Jacques - Betts - Stortini

Which leaves us Brule, Pouliot, MacIntyre, Reddox in which to try and trim an additional $1mil. Smac and Reddox going down would do that and still give the Oilers a couple of depth options at C and on the wings.

Total Cap Result:

ROSTER SIZE 23
SALARY CAP $56,800,000
PAYROLL $57,658,333
BONUSES $1,015,000
CAP SPACE $156,667

I think this is a significantly better lineup than the one the Oilers have right now. I also think it would be a near safe bet to be a playoff team. There are very few holes in the top 9 forwards because the team adds players who improve the PP, ES and PK aspects of this club. Our bottom 2 D are questionable but I think that goes for a lot of teams in the NHL, and our top 4 are good enough to compensate. I have huge worries in net, but we'd have enough cap space to easily make a deadline trade for a goaltender who makes around oh let's say... $1.4mil.

Seeing What We Have

2009-07-28T11:23:00.005-04:00

The Oilers have changed their roster over several times over in the last 10 years, but one common trait is the removal of younger effective NHL players for even younger unproven players.

This is often explained by saying something along the lines of "We need to see what this player can do". I can't see how this philosophy makes sense, especially when you spent 2 or 3 years developing that player and living through the growing pains in the first place. The whole bird in hand vs 2 in the bush scenario.

I understand that good teams need to bring in younger players, that's not what I'm arguing... I'm arguing the process. Ideally what you want to do is bring these guys into the NHL slowly. That includes sheltered minutes and sometimes being a healthy scratch (and even bouncing back and forth between the NHL and AHL). As you proceed the idea is to give them more and more rope to see what they do with it. Often they'll simply hang themselves with it and that's part of the process. You go back and do it agin. Eventually these players show they can play, in which case you have yourself a shiney new NHL player... Or they show that they can't reach that level and you move on to the next one.

The Oilers have a pretty good track record of following this process. Guys like Horcoff, Cleary, Hemsky, Pisani, Chimera, etc... were all brought up in this manner. The problem is the Oilers seem to have a habit of trading the player in front of these guys at the start of the process instead of the end... so the Oilers not only end up trying to break in a young player, they are doing it with one less quality vet in the lineup.

This trend seems to have started with the trade of Mike Grier to make room for Jason Chimera. Chimera has turned out to be a decent NHLer, but he Oilers took the guy he was going to replace and traded him very early in Chimera's development cycle. The Oilers then spent Almost 130 NHL games on his development before promptly swapping him for a pair of picks so they could give Rita more playing time.

We are seeing it again with Brodziak, but this seems to be the most drastic. Brodziak is unspectacular but he's a cheap option in the bottom 6 who can play the game at the NHL level on both sides of the puck. He's just played his 175th NHL game and the Oilers have spent a lot of time, money and probably a couple of wins to get him to this point. Now they paid for the development of this player and gave him to a division rival to enjoy.

That's not a bad trade if you've got a player sitting there who's come along through the process as well and has shown that he's close enough to Brodziak that if he represents a cheaper contract you are better off going with him... or if he's simply surpassed Brodziak.

Pouliot may be that player, he's probably close enough to be considered. If it's Brule though, someone isn't thinking this through. Part of the idea is to give these guys more and more responsibility to let them progress. Brule hasn't gotten that this year. From there you need one of 2 things:

1. Your replacement player needs to show he can play at the level or close to the level of the player he's replacing (this is where you can compare contracts). Brule hasn't done that.

2. Your replacement players has to have actually surpassed the player you are replacing. Brule definitely hasn't done that.

Brule doesn't fall under these categories. As much as you need to see "what you have", you still need to go about it the right way. Brule was not good enough to stick last year and this year he's going to take over one of the more critical positions on the team? If you are going to go this route and bring 2 young centres at a time, you need to supplement them with decent veterans, not further young players. All the development work the Oilers have spent on Brodziak is flushed and now they need to develop Brule on the fly.

You can't replace a player simply to see what another player "may have". You can't get better that way because you are always replacing more developed players with lesser developed players. You've already seen what they can do right now... it's why they were in the minors and not playing in NHL right now in the first place. That doesn't mean they can't get better, but you need to do it correctly

Quality of Shots and the Prime Scoring Area

2009-07-27T11:49:00.008-04:00

Much has been made of the quality of shots argument at both HF and the Oilogosphere. Vic gives his take on it here [The 'Shot Quality' Fantasy ], and if I'm reading it correctly it is a bit too random for his liking to be judged.

Further to that, if I'm reading how they determine shot quality correctly, it's about distance to the goal more than anything else. You don't get things like how much traffic is in front of the net or anything of that matter.

For instance, a shot from the point that hits my defenceman and goes in from 3 feet awya is a shot from the point. A shot from the point that hits the opposing player and deflects in from 3 feet a way is a deflection from 3 feet. Likewise a shot from the bottom of the faceoff circle is approximately 19.4 feet away from the goal (depending on your rink... I'm using minor hockey because that's the one I have handy). A shot from the top of the face-off circle is about 44.3 feet away from the goal (again, depending on the rink), but the angle is a superior shot and a much better area to score from.

I've been using the NHL gamecenter data to try and map out the best scoring areas in the NHL. The problem initially is that the sample is only for one season so it's tough to draw too many conclusions from it, but it does seem pretty straight forward.

I brought up 2 problems initially and this addresses one of them. That is, where the registered shot came from on the ice. What that doesn't account for is where the initial shot came from (i.e. when the offensive team tips a shot) or what it hit on the way to the net (i.e. when the defensive team tips a shot).

There's simply no way to account for the latter based on the information we have. You'd have to scour the game tapes and that's not something I'm willing to do without getting a decent salary from an NHL team.

That being said, we can gain an idea of where goals at the NHL level are scored from and attempt to identify the Prime Scoring Area (PSA). The PSA is the area on the ice where you have the greatest chance to score from. Often times that is not simply the distance to the net, but that in concert with the angle to the net. If you look above, it's pretty easy to see that the 19 foot shot is much closer but at a significantly worse angle. Unless it was a one-timer (or the goaltender was out of position because of a rebound or weird bounce), this shot should be stopped by an NHL goaltender virtually all the time.

Conversely, the shot from 44 feet away is farther away, but the angle is significantly better. I'd still expect an NHL goaltender to stop this shot the majority of the time, (95% of the time), but it's a significant improvement on the first shot.

The other aspect to consider is how missed shots come into play (in other words shots that miss the net). I'm going to assume that a shot from the point is more likely to miss the net than a shot from the hashmarks. Just seems like common sense to me. When Identifying the prime scoring area it should not just be shooting % (goals/shots on goal) that is considered, but instead goals/shots at net. I have a feeling that they correlate well anyways, but I can think of examples where it might not, especially around the edges of the PSA.

The reason for that is due to the angles goaltenders play and the quality of the shooters. If you've got a blocking style goaltender who only gives you a couple of inches up high and you find that hole, it's in the net. If the only shot you have is up high, there are more ways to miss the net (wide and high) than shooting low (wide). So even if I'm scoring (shooting% wise) from that area, if I am missing the net twice as much it skews the data.

So despite these flaws (and they aren't insigificant) it's still not a pointless task. We may not have the most accurate shooting charts, but we can still get an excellent indicator of where the most dangerous shots come from and who takes them/gives them up.

It's a bit of a process but I hope that there will be enough concrete data across all NHL games between last season and this season to get a somewhat reliable chart. Once we have that, we can start to see how various goaltenders do with their respective clubs based on that chart.

I have a feeling though that we'll run into the same conclusions Vic did... which is it doesn't make much of a difference from season to season on the whole, but it might help in identifying why one guy saw a huge spike in sv% relative to his past performance.

Quinn and Renney

2009-07-25T14:26:00.003-04:00

After waiting for 4 months from google to find out why none of my topics were posting I decided to wipe it clean and start anew. Maybe it had to do with the 90 or so posts I had saved as drafts that I was in the process of writing... who knows.

The more I think about the hiring of Quinn and Renney the more intrigued I am on how the heck it's going to work. Both guys have very different approaches on how to handle the bench and how they use their forwards.

Vic made a comment on LT's Pat Pending article, about how Quinn tends to be quite the throw back in that he typically runs his lines 1-2-3-4-1-2-3 (depending on penalties). You can really see that in both his players TOI and the shift charts from those seasons. You can basically scroll down the list and find out who played with who based on their ES TOI totals.

Renney seems to bit a bit more of a line matcher and more interested in doing things like throwing 2 centres out for an own-zone draw, and making sure he gets the right guys out there depending where the face-off is.

These are 2 unique styles of coaching coming together under the label of coach and co-coach. It will be interesting to see how it gets broken down in terms of who controls what aspect of the team.

If Quinn mans the forwards, I think we are in for a long year. Gagner and Cogliano have still been pretty sheltered up to this point, but the difficulty of their job is going to get much harder. They'll have a less skewed ratio of offensive/defensive zone draws (it will be heavier towards the defensive zone than it has been), and that might be well above what they are capable of right now.

I think we'll see some of the guys who usually do the grunt work have a pretty good year (Horcoff, Pisani-if healthy), but some other guys might have some problems with a drastically increased work load.

I think our best bet as Oiler fans is Renney running the forwards and Quinn running the blueline... or better yet Renney running them both and Quinn providing the motivation and leadership.