I've Moved... Duh....

I don't think anyone stops by here anymore and those who do should know I've moved to join all the cool kids at Copper and Blue.

Yeah, I'm getting around to this now... get off me.

Oilers Struggle after a Break...

The Oilers are in the midst of a 4 day break and by eye they've always seemed to do terrible when faced with a layoff of this length.

Going back to the 03-04 season, the Oilers have had 11 of these breaks scattered around the various years (I didn't include Olympic breaks). I looked at their record and GD in the first 5 games following the break. No particular reason why I chose 5, I just did.

It's always nice to know your memory still occasionally works, the Oilers are just terrible coming off a break. The team is a combined 21-28-4-2 (2 ties) in their 55 games (.436 win%). Their overall record those 7 seasons is 227-231-53-12 (12 ties). They are defenitily a little worse off as their winning % is .496

Some fun numbers:

In game 1 after the break, the Oilers are 3-8-0 with 27GF-47GA. Bet the Sharks+ on your proline for the game on Dec 21st.

The Oilers best game is game 4 where they are 5-5-1 with 31GF-33GA.

The Oilers have only finished .500 or better 4 times in 11 tries. The Oilers have gone winless once.

The Oilers have scored exactly 16 goals five times and exactly 9 goals three times.

The Oilers have given up 17 or more goals 7 times.

The Oilers are 15-26-4 over their last 9 attempts in this analysis, getting out scored 165-116.

Break	Record	GF	GA	GD
Oct 17-20 2010	1-3-1	16	22	-6
Jan 8-11 2010	0-4-1	9	21	-12
Jan 21-26 2009	2-3-0	9	17	-8
Dec 7-10 2008	1-3-1	9	18	-9
Nov 21-25 2008	3-2-0	16	16	0
Jan 25-28 2008	2-3-0	11	12	-1
Oct 14-17 2007	2-3-0	13	18	-5
Jan 21-25 2007	3-2-0	16	17	-1
Dec 24-27 2006	1-3-1	17	24	-7
Oct 8-11 2006	4-1-0	16	11	5
Oct 26-29 2004	2-1-2	16	16	0

RFA Years at the end of a contract

Just to further along my post about saving contracts.

One of the arguments against rolling the ELC of Hall & Paajarvi over is that they could be more expensive later on if they start out older.

I get the argument, because instead of being 21 when their deal is up they are 23. And considering I've used the argument that players get better as they get older I can agree with this.

That being said, there is a flipside to it, and that's what do you do with the 2nd contract?

Fortunately, we don't have to look too far to see our own Sam Gagner.

First of all though, I think I need to clarify my assumptions here. My concerns are based on a best case scenario (which involves the 3 kids all matching expectations). My comparables for all 3 contract wise are Hall = Kane, Paajarvi = Getzlaf and Eberle = Perry. The styles may not matchup, but I think counting numbers might. Based on that I have all 3 making $6mil/season (Kane is just over 6 and Perry and Getzlaf are under but signed when the cap was lower).

I am assuming that by 21 years old Hall is about an 80 point player. I'm assuming that by 22 Paajarvi is a 70-80 point player and that by 23 Eberles is a 30 goal scorer. I think these represent what we "expect" from these guys at the end of their first contract. I won't be discussing Eberles because his clock has started anyways.

If Hall is an 80 point player by 21 and his ELC starts at 18, how much money do you save on a long term deal vs him being a 90 point player at 23 (starting his ELC at 20)? I can't see it being much, simply because both the team and his agent are probably factoring in that progression to be that player at 23.

If Paajarvi is a 70 point player at 22 and an 80 point player at 23, how much do you save on his deal? Again I don't think there is enough to save on a cap hit.

So that's if everything goes well.

What if Hall and Paajarvi need 3 years to adjust to the NHL but breakout in their 4th year?

It's a very reasonable question, but I think one that favours holding them off. This is where Sam Gagner comes into play. He has completed 3 years in the league and has made progress but hasn't broken out yet so the team has agreed to a 2 year deal with him. Had the Oilers held Gagner out, last year would have been his rookie year and we'll assume he was still about a 45 point player. His ELC had a cap hit of $1.625 mil/season. His new contract pays him 2.25 mil/season.

Rookie Age	10-11	11-12	RFA Left
18	2.250	2.250	2
20	1.625	1.625	4

In both cases, Sam Gagner would be an RFA after 2 years. The biggest difference is the Oilers only have 2 RFA years left to negotiate a long term deal, as opposed to 4 if they started him in the NHL at 20.

Contract Savings by keeping Hall/Paajarvi out of the NHL

Eberle, Hall & Paajarvi making the team in 2010-2011

Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
Hall	3.75	3.75	3.75	6.00	6.00	6.00
Paarjarvi	1.53	1.53	1.53	6.00	6.00	6.00
Eberle	1.16	1.16	1.16	6.00	6.00	6.00
Total	6.88	6.88	6.88	18.00	18.00	18.00

Eberle making the team in 2010-2011, Hall & Paajarvi making the team in 2011-2012

Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
Hall	0.00	3.75	3.75	3.75	6.00	6.00
Paarjarvi	0.00	1.53	1.53	1.53	6.00	6.00
Eberle	1.16	1.16	1.16	6.00	6.00	6.00
Total	1.16	6.88	6.88	11.28	18.00	18.00
Savings	----	----	----	6.72	0.00	0.00

Eberle making the team in 2010-2011, Paajarvi making the team in 2011-2012 & Hall making the team in 2012-13

Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
Hall	0.00	0.00	3.75	3.75	3.75	6.00
Paarjarvi	0.00	1.53	1.53	1.53	6.00	6.00
Eberle	1.16	1.16	1.16	6.00	6.00	6.00
Total	1.16	2.69	6.88	11.28	15.75	18.00
Savings	----	----	----	6.72	2.25	0.00

Oilers Look: Games 33-37

The Oilers followed up a solid 5 game road trip with a disasterous home stretch. They lost all the traction they gained by losing 5 games in a row (4 in a row at home).

Games 28-32:

• Team Record: 5-0-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 170 - 162 (+8)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 115 - 117 (-2)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 16 - 10 (+6)


• Team Shooting %: 9.41


• Team Save %: 93.8

Games 33-37:

• Team Record: 0-5-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 139 - 148 (-9)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 97 - 93 (+4)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 10 - 23 (-13)


• Team Shooting %: 7.19


• Team Save %: 84.5

As good as JDD was on the 5 game winning streak, he was simply awful (as was Dubnyk) in this stretch. An .845 sv% is what you'd expect if you called up a tier 2 junior goaltender for a 5 game stretch. The shooting % fell through the floor as well, registering the lowest total of any of the game samples I've analyzed this year.

It was a shame too, because aside from the Washington game (where they were brutally out-chanced 30-19), the Oilers held their own as a team quite well. Take out that game and they out chance their opposition 78-63 (+15). With those kinds of numbers on a regular basis, you'd expect a team to win a lot more hockey games.

There is not much going right for this team. As bad as I thought this team would be, I didn't think 15th in the conference was possible. The team on the whole seems to have gotten to the point where they have gotten competitve on the ice in terms of generating chances, but their percentages are just killing them. They are playing like a 10th place team but getting sunk by some awful goaltending and some terrible puck luck on offence.

At this point in time, there's nothing much to do other than hope it continues and the Oilers get a top 2 pick. There's very little hope for much else at this point.

Sorry Burrows, No one Cares...

http://communities.canada.com/theprovince/blogs/whitetowel/archive/2010/01/12/alex-burrows-accuses-nhl-ref-of-having-a-personal-vendetta.aspx

At least anyone who isn't a Nucks fan and is tired of watching your antics. Not only are you dirty, but you dive and are an out right fucking coward. It's about time your bullshit caught up with you.

Don't like Phantom calls? You seem to draw enough of them and are quite happy to do so.

And I don't buy for a second that he told you that he'd "get you back". Sorry, but your reputation as a dishonest player makes it very unlikely that I'd believe anything you say. I have no doubt he talked to and probably brought up the incident from before.

But I have a feeling that "I'm going to get you tonight" was closer to "you've lost all benefit of the doubt with me".

It's the same thing that happened to guys like Avery and Tyson Nash. Eventually, when you play that type of game, the refs stop looking at the other guy and start looking at you, because you were always the one who started it.

Oilers Look: Games 28-32

One of the more impressive stretches for the Oilers so far this year. 5-0 road trip (a couple involving some good teams), and they hung in every game with the exception of the trip finale (where they struggled for 2 periods before coming on strong).

Games 23-27:

• Team Record: 1-3-1


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 142 - 167 (-15)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 97 - 117 (-20)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 14 - 19 (-5)


• Team Shooting %: 9.85


• Team Save %: 88.6

Games 28-32:

• Team Record: 5-0-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 170 - 162 (+8)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 115 - 117 (-2)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 16 - 10 (+6)


• Team Shooting %: 9.41


• Team Save %: 93.8

Can't argue with going 5-0 on five straight games on the road. The numbers don't bear out a 5-0 stretch, but 2 of them came on the shootout so 3-0-2 (8 points in 5 games pre shootout) is pretty close to full value. Add in the shootout wins and voila.

Oilers benefited from some fantastic goaltending by JDD. He's really had a good stretch since his awful game against Vancouver, and he's a big reason why the Oilers did as well as they did.

Even though they lost out on the scoring chance battle in this stretch, it was close. And unlike early on (when they got badly out chanced), they aren't relying on 3-4 goals on 16 or 17 chances. They got 3 on 22 vs Tampa, 2 on 19 vs Florida, 2 on 26 vs Dallas and 4 on 26 vs Detroit. The one odd game was the last game where they potted 5 on 22 against St. Louis, but you can take those when they are the exception rather than the rule.

The only disconcerting thing was that they still gave up a lot of scoring chances. You can't expect your goaltender to roll with a save percentage near 94%. If they can start to curb those a bit, they can find themselves on a few more stretches where they are above .500 (this was just the 2nd stretch all year where they did it).