Oilers Look: Games 18-22

A win in game 22 wasn't enough to salvage this stretch. It was the 3rd in a row where the Oilers failed to be above .500 since their hot start to the year.

Games 12-17:

• Team Record: 2-4-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 160 - 218 (-58)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 102 - 146 (-42)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 13 - 20 (-7)


• Team Shooting %: 8.13


• Team Save %: 91.7

Games 18-22:

• Team Record: 1-2-2


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 157 - 141 (+16)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 112 - 108 (+4)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 14 - 15 (-1)


• Team Shooting %: 8.92


• Team Save %: 89.4

The Oilers had a rather unfortunate stretch here. They played better both by the math and by the eye, but the results just weren't there. This time around though, the puck luck is going to the other team and the Oilers are left to stumble around at post game interviews trying to answer "why?".

Well, the answer is simple really... other teams got good goaltending and cashed in on their chances. Pretty tough to argue that when the Oilers on multiple occasions this year scored 4+ goals on 20 or fewer shots. If the Oilers can start pulling a few more of these stretches together (with a higher conversion and better stopping rate), they can hang with the playoff teams in the west.

Oilers - Avs Post Game

With the Oilers down 4-2 in the second, it almost seemed like Murphy's Law was not only going to hit the Oilers, he was going to steal their car, empty their bank account, max their credit cards and steal their girlfriend. For the first time in a long time, the Oilers looked like the better team all over the ice and were very unfortunate to be losing (based on the shots and scoring chances).

And with the way this team has played this year, no one would have anything to complain about if they did lose... after all, it's how they've won a good portion of their games this year.

After watching the Avs a lot lately (they just happened to be on when I can wrestle the TV away from the women in my house), I think their bubble is about to burst. I find it hard to believe that Craig Anderson can play 60 NHL games in one season with a sv% anywhere over .920. The way the Avalanche have played this year, that's about what they need to be a playoff team.

As it stands, they are basically the Edmonton Oilers with better goaltending. Both teams have been badly outshot this year, both teams have very high shooting% (Colorado at 11.5%, Edmonton at 11.6%). The main difference is that Colorado's team save% is .924 on the year. The Oilers are about 12 points lower.

If Anderson can't maintain an elite level of play, this team is going to falter very badly. They won't keep getting the shooting percentage results that they have been, so any faltering in net is going to hurt them.

Oiler Look: Games 12-17

The Oilers are currently in the midst of one of their worst stretches since the 06-07 stretch run. The offence that carried them early has basically disappeared, and the guys who were going have slowed down.

Games 6-11:

• Team Record: 3-3-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 151 - 208 (-57)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 103 - 121 (-18)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 18 - 18 (E)


• Team Shooting %: 11.9


• Team Save %: 91.3

Games 12-17:

• Team Record: 2-4-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 160 - 218 (-58)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 102 - 146 (-42)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 13 - 20 (-7)


• Team Shooting %: 8.13


• Team Save %: 91.7

The Oilers have gotten continually worse at giving up both shots and scoring chances. That was going to be a problem anyways, but it's gotten worse simply based on the number of injuries this team has endured. The only real bright spot about this stretch was that the goaltending held up rather well. If this team can keep getting a team sv% over .913 it's going to give them a chance. The big downfall was the shooting%. This was the first set of games where the team sv% fell not only out of upper-echelon territory, but to below league average. It really was bound to happen (15.2% ring a bell?), but the team on the season is still at 11.4%. The shooting percentage really has been the only reason the Oilers record has been so flattering to this point, otherwise they would be closer to Taylor Hall than the playoffs.

The one positive from the Oilers this year has been their PP. The Oilers PP hasn't clicked like this in a long time, and if they can pick up the rest of their game to at least an average level, it is a playoff team. But when you can't kill penalties (on pace for the same pk% as last year), and you are horrible at ES (on pace to be -27), average is a long ways away.

Absolute Joke

Let me get this out of the way... I firmly believe intentionally hitting a player in the head should be a penalty. I don't care if it's your shoulder, if you intentionally hit a player in the head, it should be called.

That being said, this hit doesn't constitute a head shot:



The fact that Michael Liambas has been suspended for the rest of the OHL season and playoffs is an utter joke. The only reason Ben Fanelli got hurt as bad as he did was because he turned and his helmet became undone.

Liambas doesn't make contact with the head if Fanelli doesn't turn and bend. Fanelli doesn't get hurt nearly as bad if his helmet stays done up and his head doesn't come into contact with the stantion.

This is simply a horrible decision by the OHL. Hopefully Fanelli can recover quickly and not face any lifetime setbacks from this.

Now this is a legitimate headshot:



Don't get me wrong... Booth had no business cutting acrosse the blueline like that, but Richards intentionally went for his head. Richards even avoided Booth's body in order to get his head.

Oiler Look: Games 6-11.

I'll be looking at the Oilers season through 5 and 6 game segments until the end of the season and charting how they do in terms of shooting and save percentage, as well as how they do in terms of generating shots and scoring chances for and against (using the scoring chances that Dennis has counted at MC's site).

Games 1-5:

• Team Record: 3-1-1


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 129 - 160 (-31)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 81 - 100 (-19)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 19 - 15 (+4)


• Team Shooting %: 15.2


• Team Save %: 90.6

Games 6-11:

• Team Record: 3-3-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 151 - 208 (-57)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 103 - 121 (-18)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 18 - 18 (E)


• Team Shooting %: 11.9


• Team Save %: 91.3

Games 1-5 saw the Oilers give up 3.8 more scoring chances per game than they generated. There was an improvement in games 6-11, which saw the Oilers get out-chanced by 3.0 scoring chances per game. The shot clock tells a different story though, the Oilers were out shot by an average of 9.5 shots per game, up from 6.2 shots per game. So the extra shots they ended up giving up cancelled out the increase in team save % they saw (a 0.7% increase). Combined with a shooting % that fell by 3.3%, and it's pretty clear why the Oilers ended up going just .500 and having an EV goal differential.

The problem they are facing now is that the unsustainable shooting% is falling a lot faster than their save% is rising, and it's also got a lot farther to fall. If you assume that the high end for the team save % is going to be at around .920 (extremely high btw), there is only another increase of 0.7% available, which works out to be about 1 extra saved goal over 6 games (based on the SA over the past 6 games).

One of the more concerning things is that you can't just point to the rash of injuries on the blueline and say "when we get the defencemen back, we'll be fine". The problem with this team continues to be the forwards and the poor puck support that is forcing the blueliners to make lower percentage plays. Until the forwards can not only come and support the puck better, but also make plays when they get the puck, it's going to be very hard for this team to change the balance of shots for / against.

15.2%

Hands up everyone who knows what that number signifies?

That's the Oilers current team shooting percentage 5 games into the NHL season. If anyone thinks that is sustainable over the long haul, well, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you. To keep this 15.2 in perspective, look at it this way... If the Oilers played the same goaltender every game, that goalie would end up with a .848 sv% at years end (kind of makes Conkamorranen from 05-06 look Vezina worthy).

Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed most of the games so far, but I did the same last year to when after 4 games the Oilers were 4-1. How well it holds up is another matter completely.

Through 5 games last year the Oilers were:

• Team Record: 4-1-0
• Shots For: 129
• Shots Against: 160
• Goals For: 13
• Goals Against: 12
• Team Shooting %: 10.1
• Team Save %: 92.5

Through 5 games this year the Oilers are:

• Team Record: 3-1-1
• Shots For: 125
• Shots Against: 159
• Goals For: 19
• Goals Against: 15
• Team Shooting %: 15.2
• Team Save %: 90.6

In 08-09 the Oilers relied heavily on an elite level sv% to get their 4-1-0 mark. Their 13GF-12GA suggests their record shouldn't have been 4-1-0, but it happens over a small sample size. Their shooting percentage last year was high, but it could be sustainable (at least a similar level).

In 09-10 the Oilers have relied mostly on an abnormally high shooting percentage. Something that is not at all sustainable over the long term. During the same stretch, their save percentage has been below average, though much closer to a realistic number than the shooting % has.

The Oilers have not only been out shot by a similar level to last year, they've been out-chanced as well. According to Dennis' tallies, the Oilers have been out-chanced 98-80. Aside from the 2 games against Calgary (who have been out chanced by everyone for the record), the Oilers gave up at least 5 more scoring chances than they produced.

It's interesting to see the conclusions people are drawing from these first 5 games versus the first 5 games last year. There's still an unsustainable percentage at work here, only this time it's the shooting percentage as opposed to the save percentage. Until this team starts being able to regularly out chance their opposition, it's going to be another long year.

Oiler Forward Combinations (ES)

With it still being silly season, it's interesting to read the papers, the blogs and the boards to see the different opinions on the state of the Oilers and who they will break camp with.

One of the crazier premises is that guys like Pisani and Moreau are in danger of losing their jobs to a youngin'. This is an interesting assessment coming from a fan base that watched a veteran-laden squad come within a game of winning the cup to watching most of those veterans get replaced by players just starting their NHL careers and the team missing the playoffs 3 years in a row.

As much as Moreau's play has deteriorated since he got hurt the first time, he's still a legit NHL player on a team that has few of them. Yes he needs to cut the number of penalties he takes (significantly I might add), but if we are talking ES, he was the 2nd most relied upon (and reliable) forward for the Oilers last year (behind Horcoff). There was no Oiler forward who had the discrepancy between Qualcomp and Qualteam that Moreau did (who played all year), yet he still managed to break almost even. This is not a player the Oilers can easily replace, especially not with any of the guys in camp.

Fernando Pisani is another player who's track record over the past few seasons speaks for itself. Despite missing a whack of games over the past couple of seasons, Pisani still manages to come back and play at a level superior to most others on the team. Pisani has played with almost everyone on the team and in almost every role. There isn't a player out there who has played significant time with him that hasn't benefited greatly from it. IMO, he's the Oilers 3rd best player when he's healthy.

With that out of the way, when figuring out the ES line combination for the Oilers, I'll be working on the assumption that Quinn roles his lines at ES and is less concerned about match ups (and it makes a significant difference).

Line 1: O'Sullivan - Horcoff - Hemsky

They ran this line a bit last year after the deadline and it wasn't very effective. I think a lot of that had to do with O'Sullivan's struggles finding the back of the net. The Corsi for this line was pretty impressive and if they can cash those chances, it should be a very effective line.

Line 2: Penner - Gagner - Pisani

A healthy Pisani gives the Oilers plenty of line matching options. Gagner gets a couple of decent forwards who can get the puck to him, while also being difficult to play against. Penner gets a creative offensive player and a quality guy to cycle the puck with. Pisani gets a chance to put aside some of his babysitting duties and to show a bit more of his offense. There's only a few lines in the league I'd be extremely wary about putting this line out there against, giving the Oilers a pair of quality lines.

Line 3: Comrie - Cogs - Nilsson

This is my soft parade, should be able to handle the softies, but they will get killed against anyone good. With 2 quality lines up front, I think the Oilers can try and get away with this line. Teams might be wary letting the Sully-Horc-Hemmer line go against anyone else but their best, and that gives this line a chance. If teams start to show no fear and start rolling their best against this line, changes will have to be made. Swapping Moreau for

Line 4: Moreau - Pouliot - Stortini/Jacques/Stone/Brule

Decent enough 4th line. Pouliot and Storts have shown they can handle this role as good or better than most bottom 12'ers. Moreau gives them a good veteran presence and is someone that can swap with Comrie or Nilsson on the 3rd line when the situation warrants it.

I think Stone has made enough of an impact to warrant being on the roster to start the year. Whether he has much of an impact is up for debate, but he's not hurting the Oilers by being here. The biggest question is do the Oilers risk losing Brule on waivers? Personally speaking, I don't think it's much of a loss, but I really don't matter. Potentially losing a MacIntyre is probably something the Organization is willing to do instead, and I won't argue with that either.