Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Oiler Forward Combinations (ES)

With it still being silly season, it's interesting to read the papers, the blogs and the boards to see the different opinions on the state of the Oilers and who they will break camp with.

One of the crazier premises is that guys like Pisani and Moreau are in danger of losing their jobs to a youngin'. This is an interesting assessment coming from a fan base that watched a veteran-laden squad come within a game of winning the cup to watching most of those veterans get replaced by players just starting their NHL careers and the team missing the playoffs 3 years in a row.

As much as Moreau's play has deteriorated since he got hurt the first time, he's still a legit NHL player on a team that has few of them. Yes he needs to cut the number of penalties he takes (significantly I might add), but if we are talking ES, he was the 2nd most relied upon (and reliable) forward for the Oilers last year (behind Horcoff). There was no Oiler forward who had the discrepancy between Qualcomp and Qualteam that Moreau did (who played all year), yet he still managed to break almost even. This is not a player the Oilers can easily replace, especially not with any of the guys in camp.

Fernando Pisani is another player who's track record over the past few seasons speaks for itself. Despite missing a whack of games over the past couple of seasons, Pisani still manages to come back and play at a level superior to most others on the team. Pisani has played with almost everyone on the team and in almost every role. There isn't a player out there who has played significant time with him that hasn't benefited greatly from it. IMO, he's the Oilers 3rd best player when he's healthy.

With that out of the way, when figuring out the ES line combination for the Oilers, I'll be working on the assumption that Quinn roles his lines at ES and is less concerned about match ups (and it makes a significant difference).

Line 1: O'Sullivan - Horcoff - Hemsky

They ran this line a bit last year after the deadline and it wasn't very effective. I think a lot of that had to do with O'Sullivan's struggles finding the back of the net. The Corsi for this line was pretty impressive and if they can cash those chances, it should be a very effective line.

Line 2: Penner - Gagner - Pisani

A healthy Pisani gives the Oilers plenty of line matching options. Gagner gets a couple of decent forwards who can get the puck to him, while also being difficult to play against. Penner gets a creative offensive player and a quality guy to cycle the puck with. Pisani gets a chance to put aside some of his babysitting duties and to show a bit more of his offense. There's only a few lines in the league I'd be extremely wary about putting this line out there against, giving the Oilers a pair of quality lines.

Line 3: Comrie - Cogs - Nilsson

This is my soft parade, should be able to handle the softies, but they will get killed against anyone good. With 2 quality lines up front, I think the Oilers can try and get away with this line. Teams might be wary letting the Sully-Horc-Hemmer line go against anyone else but their best, and that gives this line a chance. If teams start to show no fear and start rolling their best against this line, changes will have to be made. Swapping Moreau for

Line 4: Moreau - Pouliot - Stortini/Jacques/Stone/Brule

Decent enough 4th line. Pouliot and Storts have shown they can handle this role as good or better than most bottom 12'ers. Moreau gives them a good veteran presence and is someone that can swap with Comrie or Nilsson on the 3rd line when the situation warrants it.

I think Stone has made enough of an impact to warrant being on the roster to start the year. Whether he has much of an impact is up for debate, but he's not hurting the Oilers by being here. The biggest question is do the Oilers risk losing Brule on waivers? Personally speaking, I don't think it's much of a loss, but I really don't matter. Potentially losing a MacIntyre is probably something the Organization is willing to do instead, and I won't argue with that either.

1 comment:

Jonathan Willis said...

I like those lines, for the most part, but I'd probably switch Penner with O'Sullivan.

And your comments about veterans (and Pouliot) are dead on. These are not guys who can just be replaced.