PK Save Percentage or Re-arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic

Yes, another goaltending post.

I was asked to participate by Derek Zona and the boys at Coppernblue to participate in their round table about the upcoming season.

One of the points that some were bringing up was about how the Oilers special teams should be better this season, and therefore the Oilers should be a better team. When I was coming up with my answer, I focused more on ES than ST (actually I ignored ST completely in the answer I gave), and the reason for that is I don't expect the Oilers ST as a whole to be much better.

Last year the Oilers finished -21 on special teams. That was a combination of not only a bad PP, but a bad PK and taking a lot of penalties in general.

The biggest personnel change to the PK this season is the addition of Nikolai Khabibulin and the subtraction of Kyle Brodziak. Even if the "system" is better, what impact with the change in goaltending have? These are Khabibulin's PK save% numbers from the last several years:

• 2008-2009: .866


• 2007-2008: .877


• 2006-2007: .866


• 2005-2006: .845


• 2003-2004: .844

Compared to the Oilers Starting Goaltender (goalie in parenthesis) - followed by team PK rank:

• 2008-2009: .878 (Roloson) - 27th


• 2007-2008: .890 (Roloson/Garon) - 5th


• 2006-2007: .894 (Roloson) - 8th


• 2005-2006: .837 (Markkanen) - 8th


• 2003-2004: .842 (Salo) - 27th

Based on the numbers, the unexpected result is the 2005-2006 rank. The Oilers had a team sv% of .840 on the PK that season. Part of the reason the PK was so good in general was that they only gave up 542 shots on 478 penalty kill opportunities (1.13 SA/PK). For reference in 08-09 the Oilers gave up 562 shots on 338 penalty kills (1.66 SA/PK).

Based on the numbers, it's hard to see where the upgrade on the PK is going to come from. They've gotten worse in net and they haven't added anyone. Renney has had some good PK's in the past, but does he have enough to work with in Edmonton?