Oiler Look: Games 6-11.

I'll be looking at the Oilers season through 5 and 6 game segments until the end of the season and charting how they do in terms of shooting and save percentage, as well as how they do in terms of generating shots and scoring chances for and against (using the scoring chances that Dennis has counted at MC's site).

Games 1-5:

• Team Record: 3-1-1


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 129 - 160 (-31)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 81 - 100 (-19)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 19 - 15 (+4)


• Team Shooting %: 15.2


• Team Save %: 90.6

Games 6-11:

• Team Record: 3-3-0


• Shots For - Shots Against (Diff): 151 - 208 (-57)


• Scoring Chances For - Against (Diff): 103 - 121 (-18)


• Goals For - Goals Against (Diff): 18 - 18 (E)


• Team Shooting %: 11.9


• Team Save %: 91.3

Games 1-5 saw the Oilers give up 3.8 more scoring chances per game than they generated. There was an improvement in games 6-11, which saw the Oilers get out-chanced by 3.0 scoring chances per game. The shot clock tells a different story though, the Oilers were out shot by an average of 9.5 shots per game, up from 6.2 shots per game. So the extra shots they ended up giving up cancelled out the increase in team save % they saw (a 0.7% increase). Combined with a shooting % that fell by 3.3%, and it's pretty clear why the Oilers ended up going just .500 and having an EV goal differential.

The problem they are facing now is that the unsustainable shooting% is falling a lot faster than their save% is rising, and it's also got a lot farther to fall. If you assume that the high end for the team save % is going to be at around .920 (extremely high btw), there is only another increase of 0.7% available, which works out to be about 1 extra saved goal over 6 games (based on the SA over the past 6 games).

One of the more concerning things is that you can't just point to the rash of injuries on the blueline and say "when we get the defencemen back, we'll be fine". The problem with this team continues to be the forwards and the poor puck support that is forcing the blueliners to make lower percentage plays. Until the forwards can not only come and support the puck better, but also make plays when they get the puck, it's going to be very hard for this team to change the balance of shots for / against.