That's the Oilers current team shooting percentage 5 games into the NHL season. If anyone thinks that is sustainable over the long haul, well, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you. To keep this 15.2 in perspective, look at it this way... If the Oilers played the same goaltender every game, that goalie would end up with a .848 sv% at years end (kind of makes Conkamorranen from 05-06 look Vezina worthy).
Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed most of the games so far, but I did the same last year to when after 4 games the Oilers were 4-1. How well it holds up is another matter completely.
Through 5 games last year the Oilers were:
- Team Record: 4-1-0
- Shots For: 129
- Shots Against: 160
- Goals For: 13
- Goals Against: 12
- Team Shooting %: 10.1
- Team Save %: 92.5
Through 5 games this year the Oilers are:
- Team Record: 3-1-1
- Shots For: 125
- Shots Against: 159
- Goals For: 19
- Goals Against: 15
- Team Shooting %: 15.2
- Team Save %: 90.6
In 08-09 the Oilers relied heavily on an elite level sv% to get their 4-1-0 mark. Their 13GF-12GA suggests their record shouldn't have been 4-1-0, but it happens over a small sample size. Their shooting percentage last year was high, but it could be sustainable (at least a similar level).
In 09-10 the Oilers have relied mostly on an abnormally high shooting percentage. Something that is not at all sustainable over the long term. During the same stretch, their save percentage has been below average, though much closer to a realistic number than the shooting % has.
The Oilers have not only been out shot by a similar level to last year, they've been out-chanced as well. According to Dennis' tallies, the Oilers have been out-chanced 98-80. Aside from the 2 games against Calgary (who have been out chanced by everyone for the record), the Oilers gave up at least 5 more scoring chances than they produced.
It's interesting to see the conclusions people are drawing from these first 5 games versus the first 5 games last year. There's still an unsustainable percentage at work here, only this time it's the shooting percentage as opposed to the save percentage. Until this team starts being able to regularly out chance their opposition, it's going to be another long year.
8 comments:
Where did you find the shooting percentage stats?
Not sure if there is a link but...
I just added up the goals (19) then divided by the shots (125) = 15.2%...
That's what I did too Gord. I use ESPN's site which makes it pretty easy to tally up the SF/SA, GF/Ga, etc.... Keep in mind it doesn't separate EN goals or PP/PK goals, but it gives you a good idea.
Player stats: http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/teams/stats?team=edm
Schedule and Scores: http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/teams/schedule?team=edm
I would say there is definitely some difference in general from this year to last. As far as the most fans reaction and opinions.
I think a lot of people like me do not think that they are that great of a team. The playoffs being a miss has a good chance of happening.
But last season this team played much less like a cohesive unit even up to game 30 or 40 and beyond. Than they have so far five games into the season.
A lot people have a lot more time for a team that works together, appears to care, works hard & play with some grit throughout most of the line up etc... etc...
That is a lot easier to put up with (in a win or a loss) than what we saw last season. Which was tough to watch and kind of an empty feeling even on nights we won. It will depend on if they can keep this up but it appears they can.
The shooting percentage is going to come down. But if they keep playing this way I am okay with that. Until they prove me wrong I am assuming no playoffs yet again. But I better see that effort and style of play each night regardless.
oilerdiehard... do we like them because they are hitting or because they are better?
In reality, if all this extra hitting and "effort" doesn't translate into wins, you really need to question what you are watching. Whether you appear disinterested and lose or whether you run around all game and lose, it's still a loss.
Changing from a safe game plan of attempted prevention to a more aggressive game plan of running after everything is only beneficial if it results in wins.
Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed the games so far this year... but there are some very worrying signs. They are still getting badly out shot and out chanced. The play ends up in their own end far too often.
They may look more involved, but it doesn't mean they are playing better/worse/the same as before. Once this team can start driving the puck the other way with regularity, then they are better.
They are still learning this system. Yes they are getting out-shot and out chanced but, as seen in the last game against Nashville, several of those 41 shots came from 6 pp opportunities. The Oilers had 2.
The hitting and intensity is part of the package that the coaching staff insists they bring in order to regain puck possession - especially since we lose so many faceoffs.
Also, what we think is irrelevant. The coaching staff thinks that we still have improvements to make and that is the reassuring part. They realize we have holes to fill rather than sport the rose coloured glasses.
We are a better team. You can "see" it. Are we as good as we need to be? I don't think so. I think practice and desire will make this group more cohesive as the season goes on. But it is much closer to that being a reality this season than it ever was in 08-09.
Believe.
dawgbone said...
They may look more involved, but it doesn't mean they are playing better/worse/the same as before. Once this team can start driving the puck the other way with regularity, then they are better.
Well that was sort of my point. I do not think they are really all that much better (if at all) than last season. But they are if nothing else a lot more satisfying to watch and follow.
Right from the start last season. I mean I can not really remember a team winning 4 in-a-row and look any more shaky or less cohesive than last season.
Most of us wrote it off as early season inconsistency. But it just continued on and on... So I am not really hanging my hat (and I think I am not alone there among Oil fans) on the shooting percentage one way or the other.
Toblerusse, 17 shots came from those 6 PP's though.
I think the point is still valid though. You can't discount them simply because they were on the PP. Aside from maybe the Moreau penalty, each of them were legitimate calls. And that 6-2 penalty advantage is about what I'd consider accurate when you consider time of possession in that game.
And I agree, they are learning a new system and should be afforded some leeway, especially in the early going... my objection is the thinking that they are already a superior team to the one last year.
And I think all the talk about appearing to care more, being involved, etc... is what clouds peoples views on what is happening on the ice.
That's why I want to see this team turn the tables in terms of generating scoring chances before I deem them to be a better hockey club than last year.
Like I said, being aggressive and physical while being out-chanced is not really any different than playing passive and getting out-chanced.
The real problem with this team stems from decision making with the puck... it simply hasn't been good, and it prevents the Oilers from getting sustained pressure, while also giving the other team the opportunity to get the puck back in the Oilers zone. The only 2 games where we saw them make good all round plays consistantly were the 2 Calgary games.
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